Live odds on admit rates, rankings, and the campus discourse — pulled straight from Kalshi and Polymarket. Independent. Caffeinated. No spam.
Updated
A 15-second explainer. Tap sound on for narration, or read the full breakdown.
Markets that don't exist yet but lowkey should. The big one we're tracking: Ivy League acceptance odds.
Harvard's acceptance rate for the Class of 2029 was 3.6%. The trend has been steadily downward for a decade, and applications continue to climb. This market asks whether the next reported number crosses below 3.5% — a psychological threshold that would draw national attention.
Princeton has held the #1 spot in US News & World Report's National Universities ranking for years. This market asks whether the streak continues into the 2027 edition, expected in late September 2026. MIT and Harvard are the most likely challengers if it falls.
The Common Application reported over 8 million submissions in the 2025-26 cycle, up from 7.1 million the year before. Application volume keeps growing as students apply to more schools per cycle. This market tests whether the growth crosses 9 million for 2026-27.
Harvard is in active dispute with the federal government over multi-billion-dollar research funding cuts and Title VI investigations. This market asks whether the dispute reaches a formal resolution before the end of 2026.
University president churn has been historically high — Penn's Magill, Harvard's Gay, Columbia's Shafik, Stanford's Tessier-Lavigne. This market aggregates the question into a single binary: does any Top-10 school announce a presidential change before year-end 2026?
Yale's SCEA admit rate has fallen for five straight years. The next round is the one that could break 8% — and nobody's pricing it.
Colorado and Virginia moved first. A handful of legislatures have bills in committee but no live market.
MIT's yield has crept up quietly for a decade. The number deserves a market and doesn't have one.
Five years of receipts, plus whatever's live on next Ivy Day's number.
The number is down 40% in a decade. The discourse is up by orders of magnitude.
By the Editors · November 12, 2025