Will the Common App report more than 9 million submissions for the 2026-27 application cycle?
At a glance
This market is on our watchlist — it isn't yet listed on Kalshi or Polymarket. We'll surface live odds here as soon as a contract is created. Expected resolution window: 2027-08-31.
The editorial take
The Common Application reported over 8 million submissions in the 2025-26 cycle, up from 7.1 million the year before. Application volume keeps growing as students apply to more schools per cycle. This market tests whether the growth crosses 9 million for 2026-27.
How this market resolves
This market resolves YES if the Common Application's official end-of-cycle report for the 2026-27 application cycle shows more than 9,000,000 total applications submitted to its member institutions. The market resolves NO if the reported total is 9,000,000 or fewer. "Total applications submitted" is defined as the cumulative count of submitted applications (one application = one student-to-one-school submission), as reported in the Common Application's official end-of-cycle data release. This is the same metric the Common App has historically reported and which is widely cited (e.g., "8 million submissions in 2025-26"). The 2026-27 application cycle is defined as the cycle that opens August 1, 2026 and runs through the standard reporting period (typically through summer 2027 for late-deadline schools). Resolution is based on the first official end-of-cycle report from the Common Application, expected by August 31, 2027. Interim numbers published during the cycle (e.g., "as of January 2027") do not resolve this market. If the Common Application does not publish an end-of-cycle report for 2026-27 by December 31, 2027, the market resolves N/A.
Resolution source
Common Application official press release or year-end report
What we're watching
Common App publishes interim updates throughout the year. The market won't resolve until August 2027 but it'll be tradeable on news flow throughout the cycle. Good source of repeated content — quarterly 'Common App pace' articles.
Related
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