Will Harvard's Class of 2031 acceptance rate be below 3.5%?
At a glance
This market is on our watchlist — it isn't yet listed on Kalshi or Polymarket. We'll surface live odds here as soon as a contract is created. Expected resolution window: 2027-03-27.
The editorial take
Harvard's acceptance rate for the Class of 2029 was 3.6%. The trend has been steadily downward for a decade, and applications continue to climb. This market asks whether the next reported number crosses below 3.5% — a psychological threshold that would draw national attention.
How this market resolves
This market resolves YES if Harvard College's official Regular Decision admit rate for the Class of 2031 (the class entering Harvard in fall 2027) is reported as less than 3.50% by the Harvard Crimson or Harvard's Office of Undergraduate Admissions in the period between Ivy Day 2027 (expected March 25, 2027) and June 30, 2027. The market resolves NO if the rate is reported as 3.50% or higher in that window. "Acceptance rate" is defined as total admitted students (including REA admits, Regular Decision admits, and any later-round admits announced before June 30, 2027) divided by total applications (including REA applications and Regular Decision applications) for the Class of 2031, as reported by either the Harvard Crimson's Ivy Day coverage or by Harvard's official admissions communications. If Harvard does not publicly report a Class of 2031 acceptance rate by June 30, 2027 (note: Harvard withheld official admissions data for the Class of 2030), the market resolves N/A. If Harvard reports an acceptance rate that includes/excludes specific subgroups (e.g., recruited athletes, transfers) in a way that creates ambiguity about whether the figure is comparable to historical reporting, the market resolves to whichever value Harvard publishes as its primary "Class of 2031 admit rate" headline figure. If multiple figures are published, the lower of the figures is used for resolution.
Resolution source
Harvard Crimson Ivy Day coverage (primary); Harvard Gazette / Office of Undergraduate Admissions (secondary)
What we're watching
Harvard withheld Class of 2030 numbers — there is real risk this resolves N/A. Worth flagging on the market page that the question of whether Harvard reports is itself meaningful. Could spawn a second meta-market.
Related
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